Are RCEP and TPP Effective?
Yutaka Kurihara

Whether or not the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) would promote international trade is under dispute. This article uses a revised traditional gravity model to perform empirical examination of this problem and finds that RCEP, TPP, FTA/EPA, and WTO would drive and have promoted international trade empirically. However, the role of RCEP has been decreasing or not so large recently. On the other hand, the role of the TPP seems to be increasing. The distinction in the roles of the TPP and the RCEP are important to increase international trade and to obtain sound economic growth and there will be conflict between them. Also, the increase is larger in developed countries than in developing ones. Moreover, real GDP, along with the trade agreements and shorter distances are related to increases in international trade. On the other hand, the effect of distance on international trade has been decreasing. Improvements in IT may have influenced this trend.

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