The Dialectics of Strangling Iran and Hormuz
Abdul Sattar kassem

This paper looks into the possibilities of a military confrontation between the US and Iran. The US is tightening the measures on Iran, while Iran continues her nuclear program and threatening to close Hormuz strait. An historical brief assessment of the American Iranian relations precedes an overview of the chain of sanctions that the West and the Security Council have been imposing on Iran. A confrontation between the US and Iran is a possibility, but there are factors that push the two sides to cool down. The US has interests, and exposed to internal and external, regional and international pressures that accelerate deterioration, while Iran is an ambitious country that might find in war a breakthrough. Both countries have calculations that slow down escalation, but both of them aren’t ready for bilateral talks and mutual understanding. The US might underestimate Iran’s military power, and thus ignite a regional violent conflict. Iran will not give up her nuclear program, and the US will not accept an Iranian role in shaping the Gulf. The US has several choices to bring Iran to obedience, and Iran has the capability of hitting American targets in the Arab-Islamic region. Taking Israel into consideration and the American excessive self-esteem, the probability of a conflict is higher than that of a peaceful solution. If war is discarded, both sides might reckon to limited confrontation or skirmishes as a test of intentions and capabilities. But this might become out of control.

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