Instrumental Variables Approach to Estimating the Continuing Effect of HIV/AIDS Epidemic on Global Development
Mary Ann Yeboah, Mary Opokua Ansong, Francis Appau-Yeboah, Francis Yaw Anyan, Francis Julius Gyebil, Henry Asante Antwi, Ethel Yiranbon

The world has experienced different forms of epidemics outbreaks: cholera including VHF, H1N1, & TB, SAS, INFLUENZA, SWINE FLU, meningitis, which impact affect nations' income. Yet the case of HIV-AIDS remains a chronic albatross around the neck of the globe with its ramifying effects. Ironically, the HIV/AIDS epidemic has targeted mainly adults and therefore impacted negatively on human capital accumulation by reducing its productivity. The burden of any disease, or the loss of health capital, has had a powerful influence on the economic activity of a country at different levels of income, especially when it affects the labour force. There is plenty of evidence that the HIV/AIDS epidemic has deeply affected humankind for more than three decades.In this paper we present instrumental variables approach to estimate or investigate the continuing effect of HIV/AIDS epidemic on global development. The instrumental variables employed for this purpose are a set of social and epidemiological determinants of the HIV infection, and macroeconomic indexes at the country level, provided by the International Country Risk Guide and the Worldwide Governance Indicators. The result of this examination provides support to our hypothesis that the HIV/AIDS epidemic has lowered the rate of growth of GDP per capita between 1990 and 2012 in the group of 86 developed and developing countries, and in the sub-sample for poor countries.

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